Published: 3 hours ago

In early June, Britain's Africa minister Lord Collins flew to Harare to meet Zimbabwe's octogenarian president, Emmerson Mnangagwa.

The meeting in the capital city, which focused on trade between the two countries, coincided with growing fears over Zimbabwe's increasingly poor human rights record.

Shortly after the visit, protests erupted outside a London hotel hosting a seminar for the wives of Africa's top leaders, that was meant to include Mnangagwa's spouse, Auxillia.

One speaker at the protest, Dickson Chikwizo, accused the Mnangagwa regime of "political persecution, authoritarianism, kleptocracy and national collapse".

The contrasting image of warm handshakes in Harare and anger in London highlights the perils facing the UK Government as it tries to tap Africa's bountiful mineral resources.

Labour is eyeing up a pipeline of almost $1bn (£740m) in deals with Zimbabwe, focused heavily on renewable energy and the critical minerals needed to power clean-energy technology.

Many of the commodities are critical to Labour's net zero push, and also to Britain's desire to end its dependency on Chinese supplies. These materials are difficult to find in friendly places, so the UK may have to hold its noses and deal with the likes of Mnangagwa.

But are Labour's net zero ambitions sacrificing Britain's moral authority?

Prioritising pragmatism

According to a Foreign Office spokesman, Lord Collins and Mnangagwa discussed "a range of issues including boosting trade and investment, and multilateral cooperation" during the meeting.

Did the Labour peer canvass Mnangagwa about Zimbabwe's fraying democratic norms and the regime's crackdown on political opponents?

Not directly. "The minister … raised concerns relating to human rights with the acting foreign minister," the spokesman said.

Groups such as Amnesty International and Human Rights Watch say Zimbabwe is experiencing an increase in arbitrary arrests, detention, intimidation, and harassment of civil society and opposition figures.

They also fret at the impunity of perpetrators from the ruling Zanu-PF party.

But the British Government has had to be more "pragmatic", says Knox Chitiyo, from the think tank Chatham House.

"There are still concerns around human rights, around elections. But I think both sides feel that it's more important to manage their differences and to consolidate the areas of agreement, which is mainly trade and commerce, to make the relationship work," he says.

This rapprochement has extended to a UK decision in late May to lift sanctions on Zimbabwe's state-owned arms-maker and also four formerly high-ranking security officials who had been held responsible for the deaths of 23 protesters during the 2017 military coup.

Chitiyo does not see significant political blowback in Britain from the thawing relationship. He believes the UK-based Zimbabwean rights activists represent a "relatively small constituency".

"Most Zimbabweans are here in the UK to try and work, and build a better life for their communities and their families, and they generally stay out of politics," he says.

"They're keen for a good government-to-government relationship between the UK and Zimbabwe – it has an impact on things like the availability of visas to the UK and visas to Zimbabwe."

Risk versus reward

Still, there are signs of discontent in Britain's Zimbabwe community.

The clutch of Zimbabwean activists who gathered outside the swanky London hotel were protesting a group of African presidential spouses, known as First Ladies of Africa for Impact and Resilience.

Auxillia Mnangagwa had been due to attend, but didn't show up. Officially she had a diary clash, but the activists claimed their campaign had kept her away.

The protest "underscored a growing refusal by Zimbabweans in the diaspora to remain silent", according to a post on X by an account called Zimbabwe Freedom of Expression.

Overcoming democratic scruples is not Britain's only challenge in unlocking Zimbabwe as an investment destination and critical materials supplier.

The Government also has to navigate the Harare regime's arbitrary setting and sticking to rules.

"The investment environment in Zimbabwe is still quite high-risk in terms of regulatory challenges and policy uncertainty, given the centralisation of power in the Zanu-PF party," says Zaynab Hoosen, from the consultancy Pangea-Risk.

"Policy can change quite abruptly, which then impacts private investments and commercial operations."

The UK Government itself admitted in June that in Africa, "business environments are sometimes perceived as difficult to enter and relatively risky".

But the rewards might match the risk.

According to the Atlantic Council, Africa holds one third of the world's mineral reserves. Sub-Saharan Africa could potentially capture $2tn of the expected $16tn of global demand for the likes of copper, nickel, cobalt and lithium over the next 25 years.

China seized the moment more than a decade ago. Its mining companies have the backing of the state, which insures them against the risks. It has spent up to $10bn on critical mineral investments in Africa.

In the last few years alone, Chinese interests have taken nine or 10-figure stakes in Zambian and Botswanian copper, Malian and Zimbabwean lithium, and Congolese cobalt.

Washington has only just joined the race. Under the Biden administration, the US began using government-backed export finance to take the edge off the risk for wary Western miners and financiers.

Donald Trump's approach has been less clear.

"You've had the tariffs, which weren't helpful. You've had aid cuts. But you've also had support continue for the Lobito Corridor [a US-backed rail-freight project], and support for Mozambique oil and gas projects," says David Omojomolo, of Capital Economics.

Where Trump has really swung into the game is with his peace-brokering efforts in the Democratic Republic of Congo, which has put the country's $25tn of mineral reserves on the table.

"In the DRC we've seen Trump really try to muscle in on the Chinese," says Henry Sanderson, of the think tank Rusi.

"We've seen the US take a much more active, deal-based approach, which is what Trump likes. The big test with this new transactional approach is, are we actually going to see more money going in on the ground?"

Breaking China's stranglehold

In Zimbabwe, though, the US is yet to lift its sanctions on Manangagwa and his wife. This has left the field open for the UK to take the lead in tackling the Chinese stranglehold on the country's mining industry, particularly its rich reserves of lithium.

Harare began a highly successful "Look East" policy under former dictator Robert Mugabe, as Western countries ostracised him over his seizure of white farms.

Zimbabwe is one of only 14 countries that Chinese President Xi Jinping has designated as an "all-weather friend", and China's investment billions have flowed not just into mining but also energy, construction, agriculture and transport.

Still, space may be opening up for Britain. Last month a senior Mnangagwa aide criticised Chinese investors in a public forum, warning them to desist from "illicit financial activities, environmental harm and disregard for local laws".

Like many African countries, Zimbabwe wants to escape from being just a mine, telling its foreign investors to process the ores in-country so the local economy captures more of the value-add.

"We've seen a resurgence in resource nationalism over the last couple of years. Governments are being more active in terms of stepping into the commodities sector, and either banning exports of raw materials or demanding higher royalties," Sanderson says.

"The question is, who can provide the value-add that African countries want? This could be an opportunity for the West, but the reality is that China has the expertise in processing – it's far and above what the West has."

Hoosen says Harare is on the lookout for new partners to balance and diversify its dependence on China.

"Zimbabwe is still in debt default, basically. So they are trying to restructure their debt, and they need bilateral partners for this," she says.

"My take on it is that Zimbabwe is also trying to get bilateral lenders, like the UK perhaps, to get buy-in from them for this process.

"So it's mutually beneficial for both sides to rekindle ties, and to open up this partnership that has been degraded for the past few decades."

Lord Collins himself described the UK's courtship of Zimbabwe ties as likely to deliver "a win-win situation" for both.

But the path to victory leads through noisy activists and wary investors at home, and capricious autocrats and a mighty Chinese rival in Zimbabwe. Which doesn't feel like a completely certain bet.
- Telegraph UK

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