Rain reprieve for Sadc region

Published: 4 hours ago

Southern Africa is forecast to experience normal to above-normal rainfall for most of the October to December 2025 period, raising hopes of improved agricultural yields following a challenging 2023/24 season, meteorologists have said.

The region was previously affected by an El Nino-induced drought that caused prolonged dry spells, devastating crops. However, conditions improved during the 2024/25 season, offering cautious optimism for the coming year.

Speaking after the 31st Southern African Regional Climate Outlook Forum (SARCOF 31) in Lusaka, Zambia, Edson Nkonde, Zambia's permanent representative with the World Meteorological Organization and director of the Zambia Meteorological Department, said that only the western fringes of Namibia were expected to see below-normal rainfall.

"The remainder of the region is likely to receive normal to above-normal rainfall during this period of the 2025/26 season, including the island states of Comoros, Madagascar, Mauritius and Seychelles," Nkonde said.

Looking ahead to the January–March 2026 period, Nkonde said most of the region would continue to experience normal to above-normal rainfall, except for northern areas including Angola, the Democratic Republic of Congo, and Tanzania, where normal to below-normal rainfall is anticipated. He added that above-normal rainfall is expected in southwestern parts of the region, while Comoros is likely to experience normal to below-normal rainfall.

The outlook also predicts temperatures across most of Southern Africa will be above long-term averages, except in central areas. Nkonde noted that the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is projected to reach a weak La Niña phase during the forecast period, while the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is expected to transition from a neutral to negative phase before returning to neutral by the end of the season.

Nkonde cautioned that the regional outlook applies to large-scale seasonal forecasts and may not fully capture local, country-level, or month-to-month variations. He urged farmers and other users to consult national meteorological services for localized guidance and updates.

"Users are strongly advised to contact the national meteorological and hydrological services for interpretation of this regional outlook and for additional guidance, and national updates," he said.
- newsday

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