Published: 24 November 2025

Zimbabwe's mining sector is poised for a strong rebound in 2026, with the Chamber of Mines of Zimbabwe (CoMZ) projecting exports of up to US$6,5 billion and industry growth of more than 10% on the back of surging global commodity prices and new mining projects.

CoMZ chief executive officer Isaac Kwesu told delegates at the Association of Mine Managers of Zimbabwe annual conference in Victoria Falls that firmer gold, lithium and platinum group metal (PGM) markets would anchor the expected recovery across the sector. He said mining was on course to grow by 5,6% this year, helped by ongoing and new investments in gold and coal.

"Exports are expected to surge to a record US$6 billion in 2025, primarily on the strength of gold prices," Kwesu said. "We also expect export earnings to surpass US$6,5 billion next year, which will be another record. There is bullish confidence that next year will be a better year if all challenges are addressed."

Gold has fuelled much of the optimism, with prices rising by more than 50% since January to US$4 051 per ounce. Forecasts by global financial institutions show the metal could reach US$4 900 per ounce by late 2026. In response, government has rolled out incentives to boost production, particularly among small-scale miners who now dominate deliveries to Fidelity Gold Refinery (FGR). These incentives include 100% foreign currency retention and a 5% bonus for every 500 grammes delivered.

Lithium and PGMs, which endured a slump through 2024 and early 2025, are also expected to recover as global supply tightens. According to preliminary figures from the Chamber's State of the Mining Industry Survey, broad-based growth across gold, PGMs, lithium, coal and ferroalloys could drive the sector to expand by more than 10% next year.

Kwesu emphasised mining's central role in the economy, noting that it contributes about 14% to GDP and generates significant downstream activity. He said every dollar produced in mining creates three dollars elsewhere in the economy, while each mining job supports three more along the value chain.

Capacity utilisation averaged 84% in 2024 and is projected to reach 90% by 2026 as major projects ramp up. Mining also remains a critical revenue source, contributing nearly 19% of government income and over 65% of Zimbabwe's foreign direct investment inflows. The sector employs more than 50 000 people formally and supports more than 500 000 livelihoods through artisanal and small-scale operations.

Despite the positive outlook, challenges persist. Power supply disruptions remain the biggest threat to operations, even for mines connected to dedicated power lines. Kwesu urged government and utilities to urgently address these constraints to maintain the sector's upward trajectory.

Meanwhile, FGR general manager Peter Magaramombe told the conference that gold deliveries are expected to reach 45 tonnes by year-end, surpassing the initial 40-tonne target and the 36 tonnes recorded in 2024. He said monthly deliveries have averaged four tonnes, and an additional five tonnes are expected between November 20 and December 31.

At current prices, the projected 45 tonnes translate to export earnings of US$5,85 billion. Small-scale miners contributed more than 70% of deliveries in the first half of the year, producing 14,56 tonnes, largely due to favourable incentives and improved payment transparency.

Magaramombe said deliveries had grown by an average of 29% over recent years, rising from 29,6 tonnes in 2021 to the current record levels. He added that strengthened government policies, efforts to stabilise the economy and formalisation of artisanal mining had contributed to the rise.

Looking ahead, FGR forecasts gold deliveries of 50 tonnes in 2026, reflecting an 11% increase supported by strong international gold prices. The refinery is using a conservative benchmark of US$4 600 per ounce for planning, based on predictions by leading financial institutions.

Gold remains Zimbabwe's largest mineral export, and the outlook for 2026 suggests it will continue to anchor the country's mining-led economic recovery.
- The Standard

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