Published: 17 October 2025

Simbisa Brands, the Southern African quick-service restaurant operator, posted a 7% year-on-year revenue increase to US$306.5 million for the year ending 30 June 2025, according to an equity research note by IH Securities.

The growth comes despite challenging operating conditions across the Group's core markets, including inflationary pressures, new taxes, and ongoing power challenges in Zimbabwe, as well as socio-political unrest in Kenya. In Eswatini, stable macroeconomic indicators were offset by muted demand due to rising cost-of-living pressures in the first half of the year.

IH Securities noted that customer numbers across the Group grew 4% to 47.7 million, supported by reduced pricing in Zimbabwe, although average spend dipped 2%. Delivery orders surged 42%, with 80% processed via the mobile app. In Kenya, customer numbers fell 6%, but a stronger local currency led to a 20% increase in real average spend, with deliveries contributing 22% to the market's topline. Eswatini recorded a 4% decline in customer count, offset by a 4% increase in average spend.

The Group ended the period with 730 active counters, including 604 company-operated stores, a net increase of 16. EBITDA rose to US$45.45 million with margins slightly improving from 14.6% to 14.8%, while profit after tax increased 5.7% to US$16.91 million. Foreign exchange gains grew 50.9% to US$3.47 million, while interest expenses rose 17.1% to US$6.26 million due to lease liability movements. The board declared a final dividend of USc0.453, payable on or about 7 November.

Looking ahead, Simbisa plans to open a net 58 new counters and refurbish 39 stores in FY26, alongside 10 new franchised outlets. A decentralised, brand-led structure will be implemented in Zimbabwe to enhance accountability, while a solar pilot programme is expected to ease power-related cost pressures. Delivery remains a key growth driver, particularly in Zimbabwe, where the segment contributes less than 10% of revenue, presenting significant growth potential.

IH Securities forecasts Simbisa revenue to rise 16.5% to US$356.92 million in FY26, with EBITDA of US$53.2 million and stable margins of 14.9%. The research note highlighted that the Group is transitioning toward a mature, cash-generative growth phase, supported by a strong balance sheet and consistent dividend track record.

Valuation metrics show Simbisa trading at a price-to-equity ratio of 12.6x and an EV/EBITDA of 4.6x, compared to peer averages of 12.7x and 8.3x, respectively. Using multiples and discounted cash flow analyses, IH Securities assigned a target price of US$0.48, implying an 11% upside, and maintained a HOLD recommendation.
- BD

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