Published: 16 April 2026

A fresh surge in global oil prices triggered by escalating tensions in the Middle East could place severe pressure on Zimbabwe's economy, with economists warning of rising fuel costs, imported inflation and weakened growth prospects.

The crisis follows the collapse of peace talks between Iran and a United States–Israel axis over Tehran's nuclear programme, a breakdown that has reignited geopolitical uncertainty and sent Brent crude soaring above US$111 per barrel, up from around US$94.

Analysts say the renewed volatility, combined with heightened risks around the Strait of Hormuz—through which roughly 20% of global oil supply flows—has pushed markets into a risk-pricing cycle that is already feeding into higher fuel expectations worldwide.

For Zimbabwe, which imports nearly all its fuel, the impact is expected to be immediate and widespread.

Economist Titus Mukove said the country is highly exposed to global energy shocks due to its reliance on imports.

"The biggest risk is through energy prices and supply chains because Zimbabwe imports 100% of its fuel," he said. "So fuel prices will spike."

He warned that higher fuel costs would cascade through the economy, increasing transport and production expenses and pushing up the price of basic goods.

Mukove also highlighted risks to export earnings, noting that key trade routes—particularly those linked to Dubai, which handles a significant share of Zimbabwe's exports including gold—could face disruption if instability persists.

"About 50% of Zimbabwe's exports go through Dubai," he said, warning that any disruption could strain foreign currency inflows at a critical time.

Economist Malone Gwadu said the renewed conflict undermines fiscal planning and inflation projections.

"It poses a threat to inflation projections and undermines fiscal and monetary planning," he said, adding that businesses may need to revise budgets in response to rising costs.

He also urged policymakers to consider temporary tax and duty adjustments to cushion consumers from fuel shocks.

Another economist, Vince Musewe, warned that prolonged instability would deepen economic fragility and disproportionately affect low-income households.

"We will see inflation rising as fuel and logistics costs increase. Sadly, it is the poor who will suffer most," he said.

Economist Tony Hawkins said the external shock could significantly alter Zimbabwe's macroeconomic outlook.

"Net effects will be adverse on inflation, exchange rate, economic growth and exports," he said, adding that the government's 5% growth target now appears increasingly unlikely.

Early indicators already suggest mounting strain, with reports of fuel price increases and widespread disruptions to supply chains affecting a large share of businesses.

Economists say short-term mitigation measures—such as adjusting fuel taxes and strengthening strategic reserves—may help soften the blow, but warn that Zimbabwe remains highly vulnerable to global energy shocks due to its import dependence.
- Business Times

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