Published: 11 hours ago

The National Development Strategy 1 (NDS1), the government's flagship five-year economic blueprint launched in 2021, failed to deliver on its key promises to create jobs and expand exports, the Zimbabwe National Chamber of Commerce (ZNCC) has said.

In submissions to Finance Minister Mthuli Ncube ahead of the 2026 national budget, the business lobby group said NDS1 fell short on employment creation and value-addition goals, despite being hailed by authorities as a success story.

Government is currently drafting NDS2, which is set to replace NDS1 in 2026, amid mixed reviews over the outgoing plan's performance. Officials have credited NDS1 with stabilising the economy after years of turbulence, but the private sector's first comprehensive review paints a more sobering picture.

At its inception, NDS1 projected the creation of 700 000 formal jobs and an increase in the share of value-added and manufactured exports to 20% of total merchandise exports by 2025.

However, the ZNCC said those targets remain far from reach.

"NDS1 struggled to move the economy up the value chain," the chamber said. "Manufacturing capacity utilisation stagnated at an average of 51%, and manufactured exports accounted for less than 7,5% of total merchandise exports. Soya, fertiliser, and leather value chains remain uncompetitive and import-dependent."

The chamber warned that the country risks entrenching itself as a raw commodity exporter, especially in the mining sector where lithium and other minerals are being exported unprocessed.

"Job creation and value-addition targets under NDS1 were missed," the ZNCC added. "Agro-processing remains underdeveloped, driving food insecurity and a US$388 million fertiliser import bill in 2023. Without beneficiation, Zimbabwe will capture little value from mineral wealth, despite growing global demand."

Four years into its implementation, the strategy has failed to trigger large-scale industrial revival or formal employment growth. Instead, most new livelihoods have emerged in the informal economy, where incomes and productivity remain low.

The ZNCC said this stagnation stems from persistent structural constraints, including high production costs, unreliable electricity supply, currency volatility, and limited access to affordable credit.

Despite being identified as priority sectors under NDS1, soya, fertiliser, and leather value chains have continued to depend heavily on imports, undermining local value addition.

Agro-processing, envisioned as the cornerstone of rural industrialisation and export diversification, has also lagged behind.

The chamber's findings highlight the widening gap between government projections and real economic outcomes, with industry leaders urging the forthcoming NDS2 to focus on policy consistency, competitiveness, and private sector-led growth to avoid repeating past failures.
- Zimbabwe Independent