Zimbabwe tobacco output surges 38%

Published: 07 May 2026

Zimbabwe's 2026 flue-cured Virginia tobacco season is on track for a record volume increase, but farmers are earning significantly less per kilogram as global prices continue to weaken.

According to the latest data from the Zimbabwe Tobacco Association, by Day 42 of trading on 5 May 2026, a total of 199.1 million kilograms had been sold across auction and contract floors at an average price of US$2.60 per kilogram.

This marks a substantial increase in output compared to the same period in 2025, when 143.8 million kilograms had been sold. The 2026 season is therefore running 55.3 million kilograms ahead of last year's pace, representing a 38.5% increase in volume.

However, the stronger output has been offset by a steep decline in prices. The average price has dropped from US$3.40 per kilogram in 2025 to US$2.60 in 2026 - a fall of about 23.5%.

Despite higher production, total earnings have shown only marginal improvement. Cumulative tobacco revenue for 2026 currently stands at approximately US$517.7 million, compared to US$488.9 million over the same period in 2025, a difference of just US$28.8 million or 5.9%.

The data suggests that Zimbabwe is producing significantly more tobacco but earning only slightly more in dollar terms due to weaker global prices.

A breakdown of the figures shows a widening gap between contract and auction sales.

Contract tobacco accounted for 186.3 million kilograms, or 93.6% of total volume, and averaged US$2.64 per kilogram.

Auction tobacco, by contrast, accounted for 12.8 million kilograms and averaged just US$1.95 per kilogram - around 26% lower than contract sales.

At current levels, some smallholder farmers selling through the auction system may be earning below or near production costs, depending on input and curing expenses, raising concerns about profitability for vulnerable growers.

Analysts say the price decline reflects broader global pressures in the tobacco market, including long-term declines in smoking rates in major markets such as Europe, the United States and parts of Asia.

At the same time, major producers including Brazil, Malawi, Mozambique and Tanzania have increased output, adding to global supply and contributing to downward pressure on prices.

Zimbabwe's own production surge is also believed to have added to global supply volumes, further softening the market despite strong local output growth.

While Zimbabwe's tobacco sector has benefited from expanded planting and improved uptake by farmers, the latest figures highlight a structural imbalance: higher output is not translating into proportionally higher earnings.

Farmers delivering equivalent volumes are earning significantly less than in 2025, with auction growers particularly affected due to lower market-clearing prices.

For a 5,000-kilogram crop, earnings at auction prices in 2026 fall to roughly US$9,750 compared to around US$17,000 in 2025, underscoring the income squeeze facing growers despite record volumes.

Industry observers say the 2026 season illustrates a growing tension in Zimbabwe's tobacco model - strong production growth on one hand, but declining global pricing power on the other - raising questions about long-term income sustainability for farmers in an increasingly competitive global market.
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Tags: Tobacco,